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Messages - bflynn

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4651
Spin Zone / Re: The Government is Using Vaccines to Give Black Kids Autism
« on: May 23, 2016, 08:01:54 PM »
Quote from: Steingar on May 23, 2016, 08:35:34 AM
Never heard of a microbiologist becoming a nun, but stranger things have happened.  Had they properly sanitized the stainless they wouldn't have had any E. coli outbreaks.  Lots of folks make cheese without any contamination.  As far as polio, if we could immunize everyone the disease would cease to exist, like smallpox.

The E. coli came from the milk.

The nun became the microbiologist - Noella Marcellino.

4652
Spin Zone / Re: Primed To Fight The Government
« on: May 22, 2016, 07:33:43 PM »
So the government is afraid of the militia...

I'd say the 2nd Amendment is working perfectly.

4653
Spin Zone / Re: Whoops! DOJ Just Destroyed Women's Sports
« on: May 22, 2016, 07:31:40 PM »
Quote from: Kristin on May 22, 2016, 07:06:43 PM
There is the issue of intent.  I am sure that most transgendered women have no desire for anyone to see their penis.  If they were that proud of it, I doubt that they would be transgender.  While this may shock you, women can handle the sight of a penis.  The uncomfortable part comes when we don't know what is coming next.  So if some man is waving a penis at us, the fear comes in from what he is going to do next, not the sight of the penis per se.

Then why do we have laws prohibiting adults from exposing themselves even accidentally to a minor?  As soon as you put a child in the picture, intent pretty much goes out the window. 

Since the term "transgender" covers such a broad area, you really have no idea what a transgender man wants and doesn't want when it comes to their penis.  To claim otherwise is just not credible.

Quote
Transgender:  denoting or relating to a person whose self-identity does not conform unambiguously to conventional notions of male or female gender.

A straight transvestite is transgender.  So is a gay crossdresser, but I suspect neither has any desire to rid themselves of their penis or to refrain from exposing it to the appropriate people and perhaps to inappropriate people. 

You cannot narrow intent to just the ones that wrap up the issues conveniently for you because each individual has unique intent.  Nor is it necessarily possible to determine intent afterwards.  The best you can do is take a best guess, which is assured to be wrong sooner or later. 

4654
Spin Zone / Re: Latest RCP Average poll
« on: May 22, 2016, 12:55:08 PM »
Quote from: Lucifer on May 22, 2016, 12:53:05 PM
Just your opinion based upon your bias.  Opinions are like assholes, some are bigger than others.

I'm independent and I don't want The Hag elected.  So I don't think it's "my bias".  I'm looking at numbers and reaching conclusions based on data, not what I believe or what I think.

Good site for getting the sense of the states.  They're still using lagging polls, but they will get updated soon.

http://electiongraphs.com/2016ec/

4655
Spin Zone / Re: Latest RCP Average poll
« on: May 22, 2016, 12:54:07 PM »
Quote from: LevelWing on May 22, 2016, 12:40:07 PM
I think Bush was a far better candidate in terms of conservative ideals and principles but Trump may be able to win these states given the angry vote he's been able to tap into. I'm not saying he will win those states, I'm saying I think he has a chance to.

Sure.  And he has a chance to win California too, but not a very good one.  Trump needs about about a 6 percentage point shift to eek out a victory.  IF he can do that, then he will win Florida, which is the tipping point state right now. 

It's not impossible  But it's very unlikely for a candidate to swell 6 points above their spring high.  Trump is at his high point right now.  The last one to do it was Reagan in 1980...thanks to the Iranian hostage crisis. 

4656
Spin Zone / Re: Latest RCP Average poll
« on: May 22, 2016, 12:41:52 PM »
Quote from: Lucifer on May 22, 2016, 10:44:29 AM
Six months out, the conventions haven't happened yet.   Trying to claim the above is locked up is down right foolish at this time frame.

These aren't wild guesses.  They're based on polling, which was the topic when you started this thread.  Some of those polls include past presidential elections.  You tell me that you think Wisconsin is going to change?  That Pennsylvania is going to move 5 percentage points to the right? 

I agree that things can change. I don't see it happening, Trump is not that kind of candidate.

The process used by Republicans to choose a candidate is broken. 



4657
Spin Zone / Re: Latest RCP Average poll
« on: May 22, 2016, 12:32:17 PM »
Quote from: LevelWing on May 22, 2016, 10:08:32 AM
I think Trump can actually win Maine and New Mexico and while not likely, maybe Wisconsin if he plays his cards right. Though after the primary debacle maybe not. Either way, I agree that Clinton has a solid lead already in the general election but again, we're so far out.

The last time Wisconsin went Republican was 1984 although it did get close in 2000 and 2004.

For New Mexico, it was 1988 but again close in 2000 and 2004.

In Maine, it was 1988 and it hasn't been less than a 5% spread since.

Do you think Trump is a better or worse candidate than Bush was?  All three of these states that you named have voted blue since Reagan was president.  What is going to happen to change that? 

As in flying, hope is not a strategy.


4658
Spin Zone / Re: Latest RCP Average poll
« on: May 22, 2016, 09:59:12 AM »
Quote from: Lucifer on May 22, 2016, 08:22:49 AM
Right now the electoral map is highly inaccurate

Really?  Which one of these states is NOT a solid Democrat win?  This is Clinton's 227 head start.  This why she only needs Ohio and Pennsylvania to win.  This is why, after the euphoria of winning the nomination wears off, Republicans will be faced with the ugly reality that they have once again chosen a candidate that is a loser.

California (55)
New York (29)
Massachusetts (11)
Vermont (3)
Rhode Island (4)
Maryland (10)
DC (3)
Hawaii (4)
Delaware (3)
Illinois (20)
Maine (3)
Washington (12)
Connecticut (7)
Maine CD2 (1)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
Oregon (7)
Wisconsin (10)

4659
Spin Zone / Re: Latest RCP Average poll
« on: May 22, 2016, 08:10:38 AM »
We don't elect presidents via a national poll.  Latest RCP Electoral map. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Clinton needs another 43 votes out the battleground states, Trump needs 127.  This isn't really different than before.

I think the electoral map is still mostly running on polling data from two months ago and in some cases from 2 years ago.  But the two most likely states for Clinton to pick up on this map are Pennsylvania and Florida, both of which include polling after Cruz left the race and both of which are still for Clinton.  That's 49 votes and she wins.

It appears Trump is still the loser.

4660
Spin Zone / Re: The Government is Using Vaccines to Give Black Kids Autism
« on: May 21, 2016, 05:47:08 PM »
Quote from: FastEddieB on May 21, 2016, 05:27:15 PM
Credit where credit is due, eliminating the scourge of polio has to be seen as a good thing.

Isn't it?

Might be, IF polio was actually eliminated.  It is back, maybe in a more virulent, resistant form.  Survival of the fittest includes viruses and bacteria.  That's basically how we got MRSA, we tried killing off everything we could until we had eliminated all the weaker organisms in favor of the one that we cannot cure.  MRSA used to get choked off by the other "not so bad" stuff, but now it's free to rampage on it's own.

I heard about a similar case from the nun (and microbiologist) who makes cheese in a wooden tub.  Of course, the FDA put the brakes on that.  EVERYONE knows that stainless steel is the choice for food production.  Except that once they forced her to use stainless, she started getting breakout of e-coli in her cheese and it was making people sick.  How could that be, cheese made in dirty wooden tub is OK, but cheese made in "sanitary" container is a problem?  Turns out the wooden tub was "infested" with several variants of good bacteria which had the aggregate effect of killing e-coli. 

Has the same happened with polio?  I don't know but it survived somewhere and is rearing it's head again.

4661
Spin Zone / Re: Whoops! DOJ Just Destroyed Women's Sports
« on: May 21, 2016, 05:33:37 PM »
Quote from: Kristin on May 19, 2016, 10:20:07 PM
Good example of a predator.  He is not, however, a transvestite, transsexual, trans-whatever.

Jessica Hambrook is a straight transvestite man.  And a predator. 


4662
Spin Zone / Re: Whoops! DOJ Just Destroyed Women's Sports
« on: May 21, 2016, 05:20:14 PM »
Quote from: Kristin on May 19, 2016, 10:24:17 PM
I don't believe that in most jurisdictions there were laws about who used which restroom.  Indecent exposure and lewd and lascivious conduct was, and still is, illegal. 

Yes, it is.  So why do men suddenly think they can enter the ladies restrooms and locker rooms?  Because they have been been told that they legally can do it.  It's removed a barrier and created direct access to a boundary condition.  Disturbed men are acting on it.

Question - if a transgender man is using a women's locker room and exposes his penis to a young girl, he's committed a pretty serious sex offense hasn't he?  Basically he is no different than the flasher in a trenchcoat.

Quote from: Kristin on May 19, 2016, 10:24:17 PM
I would not be surprised if most of these recent ones which were not obviously perverts, were probably conservatives making a political statement.  This too will pass.

You think someone deliberately took actions to get themselves registered as a sex offender for the purpose of pointing out that it was possible?  Do you realize how laughable that sounds?  Go back and re-read it with a neutral mind and try to fight off your embarrassment at what you wrote.

No, it isn't going to pass, it is going to get worse.  Here's another one that I missed, it just showed up in the "past 24 hours" search.  Man filming a 10 year old girl.  http://fox43.com/2016/04/21/alleged-ladies-restroom-peeper-arrested-on-child-pornography-charge/

I keep getting them mixed up, there are too many to keep straight.  I believe I also missed one about a man assaulting a 8 year old girl in a Chicago ladies bathroom in a Jason's Deli.  Again, the barriers to him being in the bathroom were broken down and that put him and his victim alone in the bathroom.

Do you know where I haven't seen one of these stories?  In North Carolina.

4663
Spin Zone / Re: Gun control
« on: May 21, 2016, 05:04:51 PM »
This is the only kind of gun control we need:

4664
Spin Zone / Re: Whoops! DOJ Just Destroyed Women's Sports
« on: May 19, 2016, 06:52:21 AM »
Quote from: EppyGA on May 19, 2016, 06:41:47 AM
Just who wrote and published the decree?  Seems to me Obama has brought this to the fore.  Is he a Republican now?

Lots of local organizations and governments.

In NC, this was kicked off by a Charlotte city ordinance.  In Washington, it was a State law that they're now trying to walk back.  Toronto, it was a university policy.

It doesn't matter what the source was, telling people that they can choose which bathroom to use has negative consequences because you're giving them permission to be there.

4665
Spin Zone / Re: U of Iowa Student Recants Hate Crime Claim
« on: May 19, 2016, 06:26:28 AM »
How many times has this happened?  I can't count right now, but it seems like lately there are more hate crimes lied about than actually committed.

Was it two days ago that the gay cake guy from Whole Foods admitted that he lied?  Or was that yesterday?

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