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Messages - Gary

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106
Spin Zone / For those data geeks
« on: April 18, 2017, 04:18:16 PM »
Steve Ballmer (now that he is "retired") needed something to do, so he has started a new website devoted to statistics about our country.

http://usafacts.org

Haven't played around the site too much yet, but it is chock full of all kinds of info.  Will wait to see the veracity and accuracy of the site.  He claims to that all the data is sound and verified - we shall see.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/business/dealbook/steve-ballmer-serves-up-a-fascinating-data-trove.html?ref=business&_r=1


107
Spin Zone / Re: Georgia 6th District
« on: April 18, 2017, 12:54:00 PM »
It took me a while, but I came to realize that Democrat, and Establishment Republican are two sides OF THE SAME COIN!

Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered.  The R's are going to get slaughtered.

Whoo-Hooo...  Progress!!  (Not so sure the R's will get slaughtered)

108
Spin Zone / Re: Trump - vs - N. Korea
« on: April 17, 2017, 04:34:57 PM »
This is an exercise in speculation.

If N. Korea were to launch what we thought was a nuclear tipped ICBM,

What would Trump do?
How would it turn out?

Not a single person really knows.

Even if we blew it up 4 seconds after launch, NK has beaucoup conventional missles already targeting S. Korea, where millions of people live.  Could we thwart such an attack?

The THADD system certainly will knock down more than a few.  However, you are correct that NK has a substantial number of conventional missiles, some of which may be nuclear.  Either way South Korea will be decimated.  If NK does launch an attack, we then have the choice of attacking via nuclear - easy, quick and complete, or via conventional - long time frame, messy and incomplete.

 
sounds like a Clancy novel.  But in a Clancy novel, we would of course, win.

Where is Jack Ryan when you need him?

How do you think this would go down in real life?

I think a few conventional missiles would get through, but I also think we would reduce N.K. to rubble and the reunification of Korea would begin, and it would be a good thing.

In the event of a shooting war, don't believe there would be much left to unify.  A truly crazy guy with nukes -  no good answer.  The Chinese have a greater problem than we do, if there was a simple solution, believe that would already have been implemented.  The Chinese have been walking a thinner line that I believe most realize.  They do not want a collapse of NK which would leave them with a hungry, unruly mob with some powerful weaponry right on their southern border.  Conversely, an angry, nuclear ICBM equipped NK isn't in their best interests either.  Believe the Chinese will re-double their efforts to "calm" Kim down.  Whether that has any effect, is to be seen.  This may come down to the Chinese agreeing to a pre-emptive strike, possibly a joint effort. The problem is that whoever does the strike better get all the launchers the first time..

109
You never hear that question from liberals when the conclusion plays to their agenda.  But turn it around and the spin becomes dizzying.

A fair gripe.  That being said, do you have a issue when a conservative source (Washington Free Beacon & Fox News) uses equally dubious data, which plays to their agenda, to bash Sen Warren?

Spin is everywhere, the liberals do not have a monopoly on it.  ;)

110
Good points.  I find the discussion about equal pay a little tiresome because so many factors go into how someone is compensated. 

Negotiating base salary up front
Negotiating merit increases, and bonuses up front
Leave of absences for child birth, and child upbringing
Totally leaving the workforce for the above, then returning with less experience, and/or skills

Plus there are others, that may affect women, and not men.  In my 30+ years in corporate management, I have never witnessed pay discrimination due to sex, nor race. 

The cries of glass ceiling, and pay inequality is another divisive, identity politics driven tool used by the Democrats.  Shameful.

Yep, is does get tiresome.  Unlike you, I did see it occur (20-30 years ago), but over time that has lessened considerably.

112
Spin Zone / Re: North Korea; great response by Tillerson
« on: April 05, 2017, 11:13:23 AM »
We have finally given a response to North Korea that I l love:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tillersons-terse-words-seen-tactical-change-over-nkorea-080459181.html

Not much else to say.  Doubt North Korea cares what we say.

113
Spin Zone / Re: Your Thoughts on the AHCA
« on: March 31, 2017, 04:45:58 PM »
I can explain health care prices very quickly.

Example 1
There are 5 apples.  There are 5 people.  Every person has $1 and everyone wants an apple.  The price of each apple is $1.
Why?  In a perfectly efficient market, everyone ges what they want for the price they want to spend.

Example 2
There are 5 apples.  There are 5 people.  Every person has $5 and everyone wants an apple.  The price of each apple is $5. 
Why?  More money in a closed system inflates the price without changing distribution.

Example 3
Now there are 5 apples but there are 10 people.  Everyone has a different amount, $1, $2, etc, up to $10 and everyone wants an apple.  The price of each apple is $6 and some people don't get apples. 
Why?  The price for a short commodity will be set by the market at the point that the suppliers make the most money available to them.

Example 4
The government arrives to "fix" the situation.  Some apple growers shut down because they cannot survive under the new government rules for apple growers.  There are now 2 apples and the government hands out money so everyone can pay $10 per apple.  Everyone still wants an apple.  The price of 1/5th of an apple is $10 and everyone is dissatisfied.
Why?  An attempt to fix the prices artificially low results in shortages.

Hmmm... an apples to oranges comparison.  ;)  Can't say I agree with that.  ;D

114
Spin Zone / Re: Thoughts on health care in the US.
« on: March 31, 2017, 04:36:38 PM »
Many people claim that healthcare isn't a basic need such as food or water.  In today's world it really is a basic need.  Few of us over 40 years of age will go more than a year without seeing a health care professional and it shouldn't bankrupt a person to do so.  And as we get older the number of visits increase quickly.

Yep, that's a valid observation.

But the problem with healthcare isn't just insurance.  It's the cost.

Bingo!  The hows and whys of that is pretty complex, not a single issue.  A major, major failing of Obamacare and TrumpCare (thankfully defeated) is neither did much about the actual cost of health care and dealt mostly with who pays.

IMO, the biggest problem with health insurance is that it groups together people with no common characteristics.  You can't ban health insurance from people who smoke, drink, do drugs, overeat, etc. but people like that are grouped in with me so I'm essentially subsidizing their behavior.

Isn't it a basic rule of insurance to group as many people possible together to spread the risk over the widest population?  Certainly can't argue that smokers, statistically, are more likely to develop cancer than non-smokers.  But, not all smokers develop cancer.  It is all about risk and probabilities.  The greater the pool of insured the lower the premium and the more accurately risk can be apportioned.  The more you slice and dice the available pool, the harder it is to define risk and the greater the premium. 

I work with a couple of people who are constantly going to the doctor for one malady after another.  One is worried sick (yeah, a bad pun) because she's almost maxed out her $2M lifetime benefit.  Other than my 50-year-old-guy exam thing a few months ago I've seen a doctor maybe 3 times in the last ten years.

Excellent and more power to you, let's hope that continues!! ;D


I don't know what the solution is.

Neither do I, but do know health insurance and health care was becoming expensive well before Obamacare, which really was aimed solely at increasing coverage, not necessarily cost control. 

Bring the cost of healthcare down to within reason and this becomes less of a hot button issue.

Agreed, if the actual cost of health care is going to be reduced, we really need to figure out a better way to deliver it.  I do like your thought of "para-professionals" taking a greater role.  Since the health insurance/health care industry is huge, with lots of parties who will get gored if things change, it will be very difficult.

115
Spin Zone / Re: Gorsuch and the Senate Battle
« on: March 31, 2017, 04:10:13 PM »
Well, then how do you explain this?

Amazing how different opinions can result from the same written words!  Unfortunately, the video of that conversation (from the Fox News link) isn't available, so we have no idea of the context or the entire quote.

Edit - video can be found here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuMXqcK4Nrg


Your quote:

As Egyptian officials prepare to send to trial 19 American democracy and rights workers, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg visited Cairo last week where she suggested Egyptian revolutionaries not use the U.S. Constitution as a model in the post-Arab Spring.

"I would not look to the U.S. Constitution, if I were drafting a constitution in the year 2012," Ginsburg said in an interview on Al Hayat television last Wednesday. "I might look at the constitution of South Africa. That was a deliberate attempt to have a fundamental instrument of government that embraced basic human rights, have an independent judiciary. It really is, I think, a great piece of work that was done."

As Egypt prepares to write a new constitution, Ginsburg, who was traveling during the court's break to speak with legislators and judges in Egypt as well as Tunisia, spoke to students at Cairo University, encouraging them to enjoy the opportunity to participate in the "exceptional transitional period to a real democratic state."


I see no language there where Justice Ginsberg disrespected or otherwise dissed the Constitution.  The Constitution was written by the Founders using the knowledge and culture of the times.  An amazing document that has served us very well over the years.  If the Egyptians are to write their own Constitution they need to take in to account the very different history, culture, religion and customs of their own society.  I can understand Justice Ginsberg's warning that adopting our Constitution isn't the best of ideas. In no way, shape or form is that disrespect.  The Egyptian Constitution needs to be their document, not ours.  Clearly, Justice Ginsberg has a measure of respect for the South African Constitution, a more recent document.  The fact that Justice Ginsberg admires the SA Constitution is no reflection or criticism of our own.  I am 100% sure that Justice Ginsberg knows the difference between a representative republic and mob rule.

It is interesting that Justice Ginsberg and former Justice Scalia were the best of friends, socialized together, traveled together and developed a long term relationship based on mutual respect, even though they often had major differences.  I find it impossible to believe that Justice Scalia would have maintained that relationship with someone that hated America or our Constitution.

116
Spin Zone / Re: Gorsuch and the Senate Battle
« on: March 30, 2017, 04:10:06 PM »
Oh you mean the Ginsberg that hates the U.S. Constitution, and anything truly American?

All due respect Anthony, but that's BS.

Anyway, I believe that it was a mistake for Reid to nuke the filibuster (except for the Supremes).  When Garland was nominated, the Senate had every right not to act, another mistake IMHO.  So now Gorsuch is up, so the Reps should not be at all surprised or dismayed if the Dems filibuster, they have every right to do so.  The Reps can then, if they choose, eliminate the filibuster for the SCOTUS showing they are no different than the Dems, so long as it suits their purposes.

Personally, think that Gorsuch would be a decent Justice.


117
Spin Zone / Re: Your Thoughts on the AHCA
« on: March 27, 2017, 10:04:34 AM »
I really am curious as to what Gary's and Steingar's answers to this are.

I'm sure Steingar is fully capable of responding if he so wishes!  ;)

I will be the first to agree with you that the words “health care” do not appear anywhere in the Constitution.  Having the Federal government regulate, prescribe or otherwise offer health care is, IMHO, not a “right”.

There are many things that have evolved over the years that the Founders could not have imagined in their wildest dreams.  Air traffic control is regulated by the Federal government over the airspace of each individual state, yet we all agree that this is a power that makes sense.

Guess my view is that the ability of a person to have effective and affordable health care available is better defined as a worthwhile benefit (or perhaps a privilege?) that does rightly fall within the Federal governments purview.  The General Welfare clause is a good starting point, but is not the only justification.   It is a huge advantage to the success and prosperity of our society that its inhabitants can maintain good health. 

Universal access to health care (not necessarily single-payer) reduces the cost to business, increases productivity, makes us more competitive on the global market, saves lives  and provides a measure of financial security for us as individuals and as families, as we all age.

How to accomplish this, and who pays, is of course, the problem.  There is absolutely no doubt that the cost of health care is increasing….. since, well, as long as I can remember.  Many factors for that including the ageing of the population, advances in care and technology.  However, NOT providing health care also has a cost, the negative of the advantages listed above.  In the end, we all currently pay for healthcare in some way, shape or form, it is just that the path of payment is torturous, often hidden and very inefficient.

Wish I had an elegant solution, but don’t.  Thought the ACA was a step in the right direction, even considering its flaws.  The AHCA was decidedly a step backward.

118
Spin Zone / Re: Your Thoughts on the AHCA
« on: March 26, 2017, 06:44:43 PM »
Personally I think the best way forward is for moderates on both sides to get together and actually fix the ACA.  That I don't expect to see in my lifetime.

One would think that to be true.  Never know, American politics can be unpredictable. One thing the President isn't, is an ideologue. Forming a mix of center-left and center-right legislators would be something to see.  Such a coalition would be pretty successful.

119
Spin Zone / Re: Your Thoughts on the AHCA
« on: March 26, 2017, 02:23:52 PM »

The things that need to be fixed are
1) Fix tort.  Without this, doctors will not not be able to expand their practice.  "Fix" means raise the standard for proving real negligence. 
2) Provide a pilot program for universal coverage via a clinic system that gets Dems on board.  Target it at the top X areas which incur the biggest cost to the government for health care.  In those areas that the clinic system is used, people will not have Obamacare, Medicare or Medicaid, they will use the clinic.  Fund the clinics with a portion of the funds previous used to buy the super expensive "for profit" health care.  Mandate that the cost is less than what we currently spend.
2 a)  Schedule the rollout of the clinic system through the entire country.  Medical insurance will continue in private use.  Doctors will continue in private practices - everyone has the option of both. 
3) Staff the clinics via a new medical corp under the Surgeon General.  Build out a scholarship program similar to the military, in exchange for tuition, X years of service.
4) Reduce the number of foreign students in the medical schools, ones who will leave the US after graduation.  Increase the supply of doctors.  Offer internships (in the clinics) to any citizen who is a graduate of medical school but cannot otherwise get an internship.
5) Reverse the mandate on Obamacare.  Remove penalties.  Remove mandates on doctors.


You deserve a fair measure of credit for actually proposing a solution!  Personally believe quite a few of those ideas deserve further consideration. 

120
Spin Zone / Re: Your Thoughts on the AHCA
« on: March 26, 2017, 02:18:37 PM »
Spiking the ball, Gary?

No, not really.  The result here is actually a bit sad.  The President and his administration have something greater than 3 ½ years to go, so I’m hoping that this is a learning event and not an example of their continued governance.
 
Heard much about how the Democrats “rammed through” Obamacare, but the Republicans have now re-defined the term.  The AHCA was written by a small cabal with zero input from Democrats,  healthcare providers, pharma, equipment suppliers, doctors, insurance providers or even members of their own party.  Kept secretly hidden from view except to those deemed worthy.  Bulldozed through committee meetings on partisan votes, only minor amendments permitted.  The Republicans had SEVEN years to figure this out and can’t offer a bill that is supported by their own party?  Was the President and the Republican leadership that oblivious to the views of their own party – or – did a select group just decide to say… “I know what’s best, so all you others, sit down and STFU”?
 
So… this POS lands on the House floor, universally panned by the left, the right, doctors, insurance providers, hospitals and pretty much everyone else with the exception of the President (wonderful plan! – insurance for everybody!) and the Speaker.
 
Kudos to those House members that looked at the AHCA and said “how in the world is this good for Americans?”. 

Will be interesting times.

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